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Forecast Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide (Covid19TmeSer)

T

Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital

Status

Completed

Conditions

Covid-19

Treatments

Other: Model Building
Other: Model validation

Study type

Observational

Funder types

Other

Identifiers

NCT04460274
TurkishMOHITH-TimeSeries

Details and patient eligibility

About

Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. The investigators aimed to predict the total number of cases for Covid-19 using ARIMA models of time-series analysis.

Full description

Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease initially defined in December 2019 before becoming pandemic. Respiratory disease is the main form of disease causing acute respiratory distress as the main cause of death.

Increased number of cases worldwide had put an enormous load on public health resulting lockdowns, quarantines and curfews. Predicting number of cases is hard as the increment of cases between communities differ.

Time series had been used in different fields of science to predict, such as signal processing, mathematical finance, weather prediction. In medicine, time series analysis were used in number of admitted patients to hospitals. Aim of this study is to predict the total number of Covid-19 cases worldwide using time series anaylsis.

Enrollment

7,882,471 patients

Sex

All

Volunteers

No Healthy Volunteers

Inclusion criteria

  • Confirmed case of Covid-19

Exclusion criteria

  • Cases not reported

Trial design

7,882,471 participants in 2 patient groups

Model Building
Description:
Number of Covid-19 cases from December 31, 2019 to June 1, 2020 were used to build ARIMA model using Hyndman-Khandakar algorithm.
Treatment:
Other: Model Building
Model Validation
Description:
Number of Covid-19 cases from June 2, 2020 to June 15, 2020 were used to forecast cases using the ARIMA model
Treatment:
Other: Model validation

Trial contacts and locations

1

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Data sourced from clinicaltrials.gov

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