Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Non-cardiac Surgery: Development and Validation of the Surgical Mortality Model

Asan Medical Center

Status: Completed

Conditions: Mortality Prediction

Treatments: Other: No Intervention: Observational Cohort

Study type: Observational

Funder types: Other

Identifiers

NCT07188636

AMC [2022-0755]

Details and patient eligibility

About

This study aims to develop and validate a simple, accurate model to predict mortality after non-cardiac surgery.

Full description

This retrospective multi-center cohort study aimed to develop and externally validate a predictive model for postoperative mortality in adult patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. The development cohort included patients from Asan Medical Center, and validation was performed using data from Seoul National University Hospital and Samsung Medical Center. Mortality was assessed at 30 days, 180 days, 1 year, and overall follow-up. The model was developed using LASSO logistic regression and evaluated for discrimination and calibration across cohorts.

Enrollment: 642,377 patients

Sex: All

Ages: 18+ years old

Volunteers: No Healthy Volunteers

Inclusion criteria

• Patients aged 18 years or older who underwent non-cardiac surgery

Exclusion criteria

• Patients who underwent obstetric surgeries
• Transplant donors and recipients
• Patients with incomplete data or missing laboratory values

Trial design

642,377 participants in 3 patient groups

Development Cohort

Description:

Patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery at Asan Medical Center. This cohort was used to develop the model.

Treatment:

Other: No Intervention: Observational Cohort

Validation Cohort 1

Description:

Patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery at Seoul National University Hospital. This cohort was used for external validation.

Treatment:

Other: No Intervention: Observational Cohort

Validation Cohort 2

Description:

Patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery at Samsung Medical Center. This cohort was also used for external validation.

Treatment:

Other: No Intervention: Observational Cohort